BTCUSDT: Distribution Phase Complete - Transitioning to Markdown and Support Discovery?

In the chart, we are looking at a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic followed by a breakdown into a new markdown phase. The events: Buy-Climax (BC-Red), Sell-Climax (SC-Green), Automatic Rally (AR-White) and Secondary Test (ST-Yellow) suggest the market has moved from a period of "Composite Man" unloading his position to a state of panic selling.

Let's breakdown the price action based on Wyckoff principles:

1. Wyckoff Phase Analysis

Phase A: Stopping the Previous Trend

The initial rally toward the $120k–$123k range shows the BC and AR. This is where the intense buying demand was finally met by a massive supply from professional interests. The subsequent local STs established the lower boundary of the distribution range.

Phase B: Building the Cause

The choppy price action between July and October represents the period where the "Composite Man" sells his inventory into the hands of uninformed buyers. Secondary Tests (ST-yellow circles) indicate repeated attempts to push back to the highs, which failed to make significant new ground, showing that demand was exhausting.

Phase C: The "Upthrust" (UTAD)

Note the spike toward the end of the range (late October/November) that briefly cleared previous highs before reversing sharply. In Wyckoff terms, this is often an Upthrust After Distribution, designed to trap late-joining bulls and hit the stop-losses of bears before the real move down begins.

Phase D & E: Sign of Weakness (SOW)

The sharp drop we see moving into 2026 is the "break the ice" moment. The price fell through the major green support lines. The current consolidation at $67,815 looks like a temporary pause before further markdown.

2. Technical Indicators (MFI & RSI)

MFI (Money Flow Index): The purple line is currently at 45.81. It has recovered slightly from oversold territory, suggesting the "panic" selling has paused, but there is no strong inflow of capital yet.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 42.37, the RSI is in a "bearish control" zone (below 50). This suggests that while the asset isn't currently "crashing," the momentum remains firmly with the sellers.

3. Trading Strategies

Given that the price has broken the major distribution range, the primary trend is currently Bearish.

Strategy A (SHORT): The "Retest" short (Conservative)

* Entry: Wait for a relief rally (Automatic Rally) back toward the previous "Ice" line (the broken support) near $80k–$85k.

* Signal: Look for a yellow circle (Secondary Test) or a red circle (BC) on a lower timeframe at that level.

* Stop Loss: Above the recent swing high (~$95k).

* Target: The next major psychological support at $50k - $55k.

Strategy B (LONG): Range Play (Aggressive)

* Observation: The price is currently sitting on a green support line (Sell Climax area) near $60k–$67k.

Trade: If a "Spring" occurs (a quick dip below $60k that immediately gets bought back), you can play a short-term long back to $80k.

>>WARNING<<: This is counter-trend trading and carries higher risk.

Strategy C (LONG TERM): Value Accumulation

Look for a Selling Climax (SC) on high volume followed by a long period of "Lateral Action" (Phase A of Accumulation). We are not there yet; the current drop is still finding its floor.

Summary: The chart shows a completed distribution, even though using the accumulation-basic indicator. Until BTC can create a new higher SC level and hold it, the path of least resistance is sideways-to-down.

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